Forecast & Scenario Planning
Three numbers (new, expansion, churn) drive every SaaS forecast.
Put this metric to work: explore FlowMRR's MRR analytics and forecasts to track revenue movements, retention and forecasts from your own account.
A forward projection of MRR based on assumptions for new acquisition, expansion rate, and churn rate. The best forecasts are scenario-based: a base, a stretch, and a downside, with the levers explicit so you can react to whichever shows up.
Worked example
Simplified monthly model: base 4.5% new + 1.5% expansion − 2% churn = 4% net growth. After 18 months, MRR is about 2.03× its starting value (1.04¹⁸). Downside: 2.5% new + 1% expansion − 3.5% churn = 0%, so MRR stays flat. Reactivation and contraction are assumed zero in both scenarios.
Illustrative comparisons
Forecast accuracy (90-day)These unsourced ranges are illustrative scenarios, not measured industry benchmarks, percentiles or recommended targets. Their qualitative labels are editorial interpretations. Compare your own cohorts using the same segment, period, currency and measurement basis.
Why it matters
Forecasting forces you to write down your beliefs about the business. The forecast is rarely right in the absolute, but the discipline of comparing forecast-vs-actual every month is what separates founders who learn from those who guess. Scenario planning also exposes which variable matters most — usually churn, sometimes pricing.
Common mistakes
- Single-scenario forecasts (you cannot act on them; you can only be right or wrong).
- Forecasting in revenue instead of in the underlying drivers (new, expansion, churn).
- Never going back to compare forecast vs actual — you learn nothing.