At-Risk MRRPast-Due & Unpaid
Revenue that hasn't churned yet, but is one failed retry away from it.
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Monthly subscription value exposed to payment failures in Stripe's past_due or unpaid states. Past-due subscriptions can remain in active MRR while retries continue; unpaid subscriptions may already have churned out of headline MRR at period end. The recovery queue's recoverable value and the active MRR base are not necessarily the same population.
Formula
At-Risk MRR = MRR on subscriptions currently past_due or unpaid in StripeWorked example
$60,000 MRR, including $2,400 past_due for 3 days and $1,500 past_due for 20 days → $3,900 at risk (6.5% of MRR). Stripe unpaid means retries are exhausted, not that another retry is pending; recoverable unpaid value may already be excluded from headline MRR.
Illustrative comparisons
At-risk share of MRRThese unsourced ranges are illustrative scenarios, not measured industry benchmarks, percentiles or recommended targets. Their qualitative labels are editorial interpretations. Compare your own cohorts using the same segment, period, currency and measurement basis.
Why it matters
At-risk MRR is a leading indicator of possible involuntary churn. Segment by time since payment failure: fresh past-due accounts may respond to automated retries, while older cases need outreach. Unpaid accounts have exhausted retries and may need a manual payment or reactivation. Keep recoverable value separate from the active MRR base when reporting the ratio.
Common mistakes
- Treating all at-risk MRR the same regardless of aging — a day-2 past-due and a day-25 unpaid need very different playbooks.
- Waiting for Stripe's default retry schedule instead of prioritising manual outreach on your highest-value at-risk accounts.
- Not reporting at-risk MRR to the board — it's a truer picture of near-term revenue health than the churn number reported last month.